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CreateYoureReality NFL Evaluation and Picks Week 15 (Sunday Video games) : CreateYoureReality

r/CreateYoureReality - CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 15 (Sunday Games)
r/CreateYoureReality - CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 15 (Sunday Games)

Monday Recap

Singles: 0-1 (-2.9u) Not one of the best outcome right here, haha. Alshon went down early and Tate acquired 6 targets however solely transformed one right into a catch.

Parlay: 0-1 (-2u) Little tough right here. Had NYG ml and was cruising the entire sport. Giants D no bueno

BBDLS: 0-0 (0u)

SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u)

Teasers: 0-0 (0u)

Sunday Video games

Tampa Bay at Detriot (+3.5/+6): This one is in every single place. I’m seeing spreads as little as 3.5 and as excessive as 6. It is a bit of curious to me. Yea, DET is beginning a backup QB that has struggled a bit of going 0-2 up to now. And yea, DET is 28th in sac price, final in QB hit price with a horrible secondary and nothing to play for this season playoff clever. And sure TB has been on fireplace not too long ago going 3-Zero and scoring and common of 30 ppg of their final 3… All of those indicators level to backing TB…Nonetheless, TB has the second-worst go and scoring protection in soccer and Blough has proven the flexibility to get the ball to Galloday. Together with Evans and Winston showing on the damage report, the Buccaneers may be down linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul and receiver Scotty Miller. You’d assume that is going to be a shootout given each groups poor secondary and skill to massive play throw to their WR1s. Nonetheless, there seems to be some RLM on the overall with over 75% of bets on the over, however the whole dropping from 47.5 to 45.5. Very curious! I do know it could harm the DET draft inventory, however I really feel it is a prime spot for Blough to get his first NFL begin/win. I used to be going to load up on props this sport pondering it could be a shoot out, however the RLM has me nervous in that division, so I’ll most likely restrict my publicity on this sport. There are many higher spot this weekend.

Further Observe: TB has gone 6-13-1 ATS in its final 20 video games as a highway favourite…

Philadelphia at Washington (+5.5/+6): Properly, I’m kinda mad at PHL for that comeback on Monday night time. 😛

Talking of Monday night time, Philly is enjoying on a brief week and has accidents to half the crew. Alshon is finished for the season, Aghalor is Questionable, Howard needed to come out of the Monday night time sport attributable to cramping. It is a clear low scoring spot so props is questionable. The full has dropped nearly 2 factors however not although any key numbers but from 40.5 right down to 38.5. The subsequent massive quantity is 37. Truthfully it is a crapshoot of a sport. Philly continues to be enjoying for a playoff spot however they simply have such a restricted offence to work with. With the restricted receiving core (primarily the 2 TEs) the algo favors the underneath on the PHL crew whole of 23.5. Additionally, it is exhausting not to take a look at the house canine catching nearly a TD in a sport with such a low whole…

Chicago at Inexperienced Bay (-4/-5): Here’s a sport that might have some severe playoff implications. Chicago is making an attempt to win out simply to have a hope that the precise groups win and lose for them to make it in. GB is now enjoying for playoff seating. On a impartial discipline, I’d undoubtedly be favoring the Bears right here. Nonetheless, GB at house is a completely completely different crew. They’re 2nd in ypp at house vs. 31st on the highway take that stat and add it with CHI has solely coated one unfold OTR this season…makes it a scary search for CHI. Nonetheless, the GB protection is likely one of the worst for a way good their file is, conversely, the CHI protection is a lot better than it is file dictates and the CHI offense seems a lot better chemistry clever than they did within the first half of the season. As you possibly can inform, my mannequin is leaning CHI right here and there’s RLM to assist. Presently the about 55/60% of the bets are on GB, nonetheless the road has moved from an open as excessive as -7 right down to as little as at the moment -4.

Further Observe: Bears: 7-Zero SU and ATS when each groups are coming off a house sport, and 5-Zero SU and ATS in division video games with QB Mitchell Tribusky when Chicago owns a successful file … Packers: 1-6 ATS in Final Residence Video games in division video games when coming off a non-division sport

New England at Cincinnati (+10): We’re on to Cincinnati… Per week in the past, after we have been filming there sideline indicators…

In all equity does anybody assume NE would really NEEED the Bengals indicators to beat them… They got here out as a 10 level highway favourite! I dont get this one and truthfully it seems like media bias to have one thing to speak about for per week and in charge when the Patriots win one other Superbowl. There’s some trigger to be weary of this unfold. Edleman is questionable however I simply do not see sufficient to warrant a keep away. Here is an additional stat discovered for the Patriots: “The Pats are 41-17 ATS off a loss… and have been cash within the financial institution for bettors on this spot for years as properly, going 13-2 ATS of their final 15 vs. groups with shedding data (which incorporates going 4-Zero ATS this season) and an ideal 3-Zero ATS of their final three after having misplaced two out of their final three SU. The Bengals then again are a money-burning 8-13 ATS of their final 21 at house, together with 1-Four already this season.”

Houston at Tennessee(-3): This line moved fast! It opened as little as -1 however as quickly as HOU fell on their face final week and TEN beat OAK, this unfold shortly moved to -3. A justified transfer imo as because the RT insertion, TEN has been the primary offence within the league. They’ve additionally tripled their no huddle price for a extra uptempo offense. They are going to be going through a HOU D that has, fairly frankly, SUCKED since JJ watt acquired harm. The mannequin likes a whole lot of Henry on this one (Not stunning he’s the KEY to the TEN offense) mixed with a ton of PA Passing for TEN going for large performs. The mannequin favor’s TEN however because the unfold climbs greater it seems like a weaker play.

Seattle at Carolina(+6): This is likely one of the tougher video games for me to cap this week. On the one hand, its a west coast crew touring East for a 1pm sport. Then again, its the Seahawks doing it and RW has an amazing monitor file in these video games. Additionally, it seems just like the Carolina protection is giving up… of their final 5 video games, groups have scored on greater than half of possessions vs CAR. Penny is out, however Carson is again and able to go towards one of many leagues worst defenses vs the run. On the opposite aspect now we have CMC who can be going through a shotty protection. I do assume it is a potential upset spot. Any time I see a house crew plus 6, it all the time purple flags a teaser breaker, nonetheless with the “future run” that Wilson is on this 12 months I’d say the possibilities are decrease than an everyday spot.

Denver at Kansas Metropolis (-10): One other one I’m actually torn on. KC has beat DEN final 7 instances SU and ATS. Nonetheless, we’re nonetheless unsure of the well being of PMs hand. He appeared nice within the first half of the NE sport, however then simply stopped doing something within the second half. General, he began the season with an 18-1 TD/INT ratio, however since getting back from damage has a ratio of 3-2. Additionally, the DEN go D is fairly good and has Lock on the opposite aspect of the ball enjoying with excessive confidence, beginning his profession 2-0. Do not get me flawed, its completely doable KC wins this sport 27-13 or 31-20, one thing like that…however with the overall dropping from a median 47 open to 44.5 now and the unfold dropping from 13.5 right down to 9.5/10, I feel there’s nonetheless worth on Denver. KC shall be enjoying as exhausting as they’ll as there’s nonetheless an opportunity on the two seed. Nonetheless, as I said, the mannequin is leaning DEN and the factors right here.

Miami at New York Giants (-3.5): Not a lot to say right here. Each protection are shit. Eli’s final house sport for NY and almost certainly his final likelihood to finish with a .500 W/L file. I am gonna simply go together with the Manning conspiracy and say that the Manning household had a hand in Parker getting his contract extension, he’ll sit or play poorly, and Eli will get an amazing sport ship off at house. No stats. Fade if you happen to dont like conspiracy theories. XD

Jacksonville at Oakland (-6.5): One other massive line motion. Opened at 4.5, is as much as largely 6.5. Final week the Jaguars, (31st) in run D, misplaced their greatest linebacker and main tackler in Myles Jack. This week they misplaced one other linebacker in Quincy Williams who’s the fourth linebacker that Jacksonville has misplaced this season. This Sunday ought to be an amazing day for Josh Jacobs who solely wants 246 yards to interrupt Saquan’s rookie-of-the-year mark of 1,307 yards. Even when Jacobs is harm, DeAndre Washington, who crammed in properly final week, will get the possibility to carve up the Jaguars. I do assume that it is a good search for the over. Each defenses suck the one deterrent right here is DJ Chark the shark is perhaps out for this one, hurting JAX possibilities at maintaining.

Cleveland at Arizona (+3): That is one other curious spot for me. The Browns are just about performed for the season with regard to playoff possibilities. Theoretically they might win out however just like the Bears they would want a ton of assist, and a win over the Ravens. They do face an ARZ crew that’s horrible towards the go and has been a cash loser for many of the season at house. The algo does not have a particular lean right here, however because the factors rise, the AZ ml seems tempting. This sport additionally has the potential for an enormous props sport as CLE has superb WR/CB match ups.

Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5): Some Critical RLM on this one. Nearly 70% of bets on MIN but the road has gone from a -Three open to -1/-1.5 in most spots. That is really actually bizarre. MIN has nearly everybody wholesome once more, Theilin, Diggs…each again. LAC stadium as we all know has nearly no HFA…w.t.f. Additionally, this sport missed out on the flex to the night time sport which went to BUF/PIT… Are you able to say, ” The repair is in” All statistics level to MIN selecting up a simple win. Then why is the road dropping? Properly, lets dive deeper into the stats…

  • Los Angeles is house after a tricky stretch of schedule and driving excessive off a 45-10 win over Jacksonville final Sunday. The Chargers protection has been particularly sturdy, permitting a median of simply 260 yards towards over the previous three outings.

  • The Chargers have been enjoying distinctive go protection of late as they’ve the second-best passing yards towards oveer their final three video games and have held Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes to simply 561 yards mixed and three touchdowns in three of their final 5 video games. The numbers look even higher if you have a look at all their video games since November: 171.Four yards passing and just one opposing QB to throw for a couple of TD.

  • Cousins is 3-Four SU on the highway this 12 months and has a completion proportion 17 factors decrease on the highway than at house.

  • Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS of their final 10 video games when getting the factors

Perhaps the sharps are contemplating this a let down spot for MIN as they’re most likely looking forward to a divisional match up subsequent week vs. GB.

One final piece of data that makes the Chargers one of many BEST SPOTS TO TEASE this week :

  • The Bolts’ eight losses on the season have all been by one rating (one by 2, three by 3, and 4 by 7) and whereas they’ve gone 4-0-1 ATS of their 5 wins in 2019, retaining it shut wasn’t sufficient for bettors sorting by a 4-7-2 ATS file on the season

Atlanta at San Francisco (-10.5): The 49ers performed a spectacular sport final week to get a win over the Saints. This places them within the hunt to get the highest seed within the NFC. Nonetheless, their damage record is rising at a quick price on the flawed time.

They’re lacking our bodies at receiver, on the defensive position, on the offensive line (beginning middle Weston Richburg on IR) and within the secondary, the place Richard Sherman, Okay’Waun Williams, and security Jaquiski Tartt are out or questionable heading into Sunday.

Because the bye week, Atlanta is 3-2 SU and ATS after 1-7 begin. With all of the accidents to SF right here, I can simply see a backdoor cowl from ATL. Hell, San Fran’s ultimate two video games of the season are towards divisional opponents (SEA and LAR) they may get caught resting and looking out right here and be in line for a shock upset! XD

LA Rams at Dallas (+1): How did this sport not get flexed into the night time spot…? Is it as a result of Philly goes to lose to Washington and this sport means nothing for Dallas? I can not think about if Philly will get a win right here that Jerry Jones would not need Americas crew to not be within the highlight when they’re enjoying for a playoff likelihood…

Anyway, nearly 80% of the tickets are on the Rams, and the road has moved closely from -Four Dallas to -1/1.5 LAR.

If the Rams win out, they’ll nearly management their future with a 96% likelihood of constructing the playoffs. There protection is best. Vander esch continues to be out for Dallas however Sean Lee could also be good to go on this one. The Rams have been making an attempt to get again to fundamentals with Gurley over the previous couple of weeks, and the Cowboys have been gashed within the run sport so search for LA to proceed with that technique. Relying on how properly Dak can transfer the ball towards this Rams D, this sport has the potential for a excessive scoring affair. The one factor that basically worries me is with 80% of the tickets on LA and the road has but to rise up to -3, it seems as if the books dont wish to give Dallas too many factors. Perhaps Dallas is definitely the play right here? Truthfully, I feel one of the best spot on this one is one other teaser. The over seems prime and both aspect teased above 6/7 seems very enticing.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-1): Lastly we get to the sport that the NFL determined to flex into Sunday Primetime. Presently 70-80% of bets are on Buffalo and the unfold has moved from 2.5 right down to 1, however that is not by any key numbers. Each groups have been nice defensively and PIT sees the return of their beginning RB. This has the makings of a tricky, low scoring, grind it out sort sport. We are saying this each week it appears, however it may be an enormous check for Josh Allen to see if the Payments are actually a playoff contender or simply had a simple schedule. To this point he has performed properly successful 5 of 6 on the highway this season with Three of their Four highest scoring video games OTR. Nonetheless, they are going to be going through a Steeler D that has been legit because the add of Fitzpatrick. Over the past Four video games(all wins) the Steelers are giving up solely 16 ppg. Once more, this sport seems good for a tease. Each side too in a low scoring grind it out sport that appears to be determined by 1 rating or much less.

Singles 110-110-3 (+22.13u)

  • O.J. Howard 3.5 Rec Over (0.5u to win 0.63u)

  • Golladay 4.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1u)

  • Golladay To Get 100+ Receiving Yards (0.5u to win 0.7u)

  • Danny Amendola 4.5 Rec Over (0.7u to win 0.52u)

  • Breshad Perriman 3.5 Rec Over (0.5u to win 0.7u)

  • PHL TT was 23.5, now 22.5, no guess for me now.

  • Zach Ertz 5.5 Rec Over (0.5u to win 0.54u)

  • Dallas Goedert 3.5 Rec Over (0.63u to win 0.5u)

  • Terry McLaurin 53.5 Rec Yards Over (1.12u to win 1u)

  • CHI TT 17.5 Over (0.52u to win 0.5u)

  • Allen Robinson 5.5 Rec Over (0.5u to win 0.56u)

  • Allen Robinson 69.5 Rec Yards Over (0.56u to win 0.5u)

  • Allen Robinson 100 Rec Yards Over (0.5u to win 0.95u)

  • Hopkins 75+ Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

  • A.J. Brown 63.5 Rec Yards Over (0.56u to win 0.5u)

  • Deebo Samuel Over 51.5 Rec Yards (1.12u to win 1u)

  • Kupp To Get 125+ Receiving Yards (0.5u to win 2.5u)

  • Kupp 60.5 Receiving Yards Over (1.12u to win 1u)

  • Cooper 125+ Rec Yards (0.5u to win 2u)

  • Gurley 21.5 Rec Yards Over (0.5u to win 0.53u)

  • Gurley To Get 75+ Speeding Yards (0.5u to win 0.55u)

  • DET +5 (0.55u to win 0.5u)

  • WAS +6 (0.55u to win 0.5u)

  • NE -10 (0.55u to win 0.5u)

  • NYG -3 (0.55u to win 0.5u)

  • LAC +3 (0.74u to win 0.5u)

  • PIT -1 (1.1u to win 1u)

  • Tyreek Hill and Hopkins 100+ Rec Yards and a TD EACH (1u to win 10.5u)

Parlays: 7-13 (+78.06u) 5u of free bets to make use of up earlier than they’re all expired this week. They are going to all go right here and the BBDLS.

  • NE ml, NO ml, NYG ml, CHI +6.5, DET +6.5 (0u to win 10.02u)

  • NE ml, NO ml, TEN ml, OAK ml, PIT ml (0u to win 12.34u)

  • NE ml, NO ml, LAR ml, LAC ml, DEN +10, ATL +10.5 (0u to win 20.45u)

It is a separate field I’m making for Borgata on-line bets. They determined to offer me 10u for no cause. The one draw back is that they have a 6x rollover earlier than I can take the winnings. Due to this I’ll attempt for parlays to hit extra then 6x the bonus. Not one of the losses depend towards us, and not one of the winnings depend for us till I’ve rolled over 6x.

Borgata On-line

  • NE to win first half and full time, NO ml, NYG +3.5, OAK ml, TEN +6.5, DET +8.5, LAC +6.5,CHI +8.5, LAR +6.5, PIT +6.5 (0u to win 132.32u) Parlay

  • NE ml, NO ml, NYG ml, CHI ml, OAK ml, TEN +3.5, DEN +4.5, DET +8.5, LAC ml, ATL ml, PIT ml (0u to win 427.82u) BBDLS

  • NE and NO to win 1st half and full time, NYG ml, OAK ml, TEN ml, DET +8.5, LAC ml, CHI ml, LAR ml, PIT ml (0u to win 621.69u) BBDLS

  • NE ml, TEN ml, NYG ml, OAK ml, LAR ml, NO ml, ATL +10.5, DET +3.5, WAS +5.5, CHI +4.5, DEN +9.5 (0u to win 211.47u) Pre-research guess BBDLS

Massive Boy Daddy Lengthy Shot 0-12 (-14.04u)

  • Over 60.5 Rec Yards Kupp, Over 53.5 Rec Yards McLaurin, Over 69.5Rec Yards Robinson, Over 79.5 Rec Yards Hopkins, NE ml, NO ml, OAK ml, CLE ml, KC ml, LAC ml, DET TT 20.5 Over (1.38u to win 290.46u)

  • NE ml, NO ml, NYG ml, CHI ml, DET +6.5, OAK ml, TEN ml, LAC ml, ATL ml, PIT ml (0u to win 232.21u)

  • NO, LA, TEN, NYG, PIT, NE -9.5, OAK, CHI +4.5, CAR +6, WAS +4.5, DEN +9.5, DET +3.5 (0.2u to win 174.79u) Put this in pre analysis for enjoyable

  • HOU, DET ml and O45.5, KC, CLE, NYG, OAK, LAC, SEA, GB, WASH, PIT, IND +9.5 and O46.5 (0.5u to win 2476.27)

  • HOU +3.5, DET +3.5, NYG -3, NE -10, CLE -3, LAC ml, GB ml, OAK ml, PIT ml, WAS +6.5 (0.96u to win 400u) AJ

Tremendous Massive Boy Daddy Lengthy Shot: 0-12 (-6u)

Teasers: 6-21 (-35.1u)

Thanks for studying. Good luck to all! 😀

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